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Prediction time!

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader supposes that he ought to give some final election predictions on this, the last day before the election. Here you go…

Your Maximum Leader, as he has for a while now, believes that President Obama will win reelection. Mitt Romney has made it close; but the electoral math just breaks the President’s way. Your Maximum Leader isn’t positive that the President will win, but he is 65% certain. Looking at the electoral breakdown, your Maximum Leader has Romney at 267 and Obama at 253 with Ohio undecided - but leaning towards the President. Your Maximum Leader gives VA, NC, NH, FL, IA, and CO to Romney. He gives NV, WI, MI and PA to the President. Your Maximum Leader also thinks that Ohio will break for Obama. That would put the final count at Obama 271 to Romney 267.

It is possible that WI and OH are still too close to call… But your Maximum Leader rather doubts it. He didn’t have these doubts last week. He thought OH was really in play. But then he started to check the early voting numbers and he sees that many more Democrats have been voting early. He has even read some numbers that imply that up to 40% of those who are going to vote in the election have already voted. Those numbers seem, to your Maximum Leader, to favor the President.

Ugh… Not good news all in all…

In Virginia, we are also voting for a US Senator. The race is between George Allen (R - former Senator and former Governor) and Tim Kaine (D - former Governor). Your Maximum Leader has, in years past, voted for George Allen. But recently your Maximum Leader has come to be persuaded that Allen probably has a wide streak of racial prejudice in him that hasn’t been reformed. That sours your Maximum Leader on Allen. Tim Kaine on the other hand seems to be a good man personally; but has supported liberal policies that make your Maximum Leader’s stomach churn. What to do? At the dinner table on Saturday night your Maximum Leader’s family had a debate about which was the better course: voting for the man who advocates policies you support - but might be a bad person; or support the man who’s policies you don’t support because you believe he is a good man. There is no simple or easy answer if you are being pragmatic. If you are judging the contest on the basis of personal ethics, the choice is clear. If you are judging on the basis of pure politics, the choice is also clear.

Your Maximum Leader can honestly say that he hasn’t fully made up his mind on this race. He feels like a turd for saying so, but he probably will not know until he steps into the voting booth. All things being equal, your Maximum Leader is likely going for Allen… Your Maximum Leader isn’t sure how this race will turn out. It will all come down to turnout in Northern Virginia. From what your Maximum Leader can tell, both President Obama and Governor Kaine have “given up” on winning Virginia south of your Maximum Leader’s home in Fredericksburg. So it all comes down to turnout in the most densely populated region of the state. If you pressed your Maximum Leader he’d say that Allen wins in a squeaker. But if your Maximum Leader is wrong on Romney winning Virginia and the state goes for Obama, then Kaine will win the Senate seat.

Of course, we in the US are also electing the whole House of Representatives. Your Maximum Leader will vote for his current Congressman, Rob Wittman. He expects that Wittman will be reelected easily.

There are also two State Constitutional Amendments on the ballot. One deals with moving the “veto session” of the General Assembly so that it does not fall on the Jewish Passover holiday. Your Maximum Leader will be voting for it and he can’t imagine why anyone would vote against it. He expects it to pass overwhelmingly.

The second amendment has to do with property rights. After the Kelo v New London decision by the US Supreme Court, many states passed laws that narrowly defined a “public purpose” that permitted the taking of private land under eminent domain. Virginia was one of those states. Many people (and political types) believe that those laws protecting private property are not strong enough in themselves but should be added to the state constitution. This amendment will add property protections to the state constitution. Your Maximum Leader will be voting for this amendment as well. He expects it to pass overwhelmingly.

So there it is.

Carry on.

6 Comments »

I think the polls are systematically biased in favor of the Dems - and predictions are wrong to the extent that it is. Borepatch has a post that matches my thoughts on the matter pretty well.

However, your estimate is awfully close to my dream scenario of a 269-269 tie in the electoral college, throwing the election into the House of Representatives.



That 269-269 split would be a dream! I’d love to see it. Because we’d end up with the best of both worlds: President Romney and Vice-President Biden.



BTW, I agree on polls being biased, but it is all the data we have to go on…



Robbo said:

I still have to embargo my predictions, but I have now related them to a third party witness who can verify them when I post after it’s all over. Hopefully, within about 36 hours or so we’ll find out whether I’m a sooper genius or an utter moron.



Kevin Kim said:

Why would VP Biden be half of the best of both worlds? You like his particular brand of insanity?



Exactly. An insane Biden ranting about President Romney would be endlessly entertaining!



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