Carbon Emissions Question

Greetings, loyal minions. So here is a real question for you to noodle over some. If the US and Western Europe (plus Canada, Japan, and Australia) were to achieve zero net carbon emissions in the next 20 years, but the other major emitters of carbon (China, India, Russia, et. al.) did nothing to reduce their carbon emissions, what would be the net impact on global climate change?

Seriously, that is the question.

I have been googling for about an hour looking for a model, or a description of a model, or a summary of a model that might show someone reading it “This is the net impact of these countries going to zero carbon emissions.”

I can’t find one. I found a neat chart showing which nations are the top emitters of carbon. Here is that chart. But I really want to see a model. Gawd knows that there seem to be plenty of models that (with varying degrees of inaccuracy) show how everything is going to hell if no nation does anything (or very little). Why is there no model that says, “here is the impact you can have if you do something major.”

I don’t want to go down the old path of “Well why should the US do anything because China and India aren’t doing anything?” I actually want that question anticipated (not that it should be now because the question has been asked plenty). Once anticipated I’d like to see a scientist develop a model that shows what might happen.

I think such a model might be useful. Useful only for those people who are sceptical, and open-minded; and admittedly small group. This issue, like so many others in what passes for “discourse” in these times, has had opinions ossify. People have made up their minds (in large part) and aren’t going to change. Not for any reason related to assessing the facts, theories, and models at hand, but just because they have made up their mind and have chosen to be obstinate about it.

Anyway… If there is a model out there… I’d like to take a look at it.

Carry on.

1 Comment »
SHELOB said:

1. HAIRY UNAVAILABLE BUT MADE SIMILAR REQUEST BEFORE MIGRATING TO CHECK OUT ARCTIC.

2. DATA AVAILABLE SUGGESTS THAT U.S.’ 15% WOULD NOT TRANSLATE DIRECTLY TO 15% IMPROVEMENT, WHERE IMPROVEMENT IS (-) BECAUSE:
A. INFLUENCE BY EXAMPLE, (+7% TO -10%)
B. REBOUNDING OXYGEN ‘PLUME’ IN ATLANTIC (+3% TO -5%)
C. STORM SYSTEMS ‘REBALANCING’ EFFECT CONTAINING MORE CARBON IN PRECIPITATION AND THEREFORE ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT. (-1% TO -7%)
D. ESCALATION OF ATMOSPHERIC POISONING DUE TO WORSENING CONDITIONS CAUSED BY OTHER COUNTRIES NON-CHANGE. (+5% TO 0%)

3. THESE AND OTHER VARIABLES SUGGEST EXTRAPOLATION TO NOT BE A WORTHY EXERCISE. ALL POSSIBLE FUTURES ARE RIFE WITH PRIME MOVERS BEING INTER-RELATED.

4. CITATIONS: PRECIPITATION CLEANING EFFECT APPROXIMATED FROM AGRONOMY SITES RELATED TO VPI & SU AGRONOMY PROGRAM. AIR QUALITY INFORMATION (B & D) APPROXIMATED FROM DATA CITED IN STUDY REGARDING INCIDENCE OF POISON-RESISTANT ALGAE IN AFRICAN RIVERS. SOCIOLOGY DATA TAKEN FROM STUDY IN CALIFORNIA REGARDING NEIGHBORS OF A SOCIOLOGIST COMPLYING WITH LOCAL REQUEST NOT TO WATER LAWNS.



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